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Polish presidential election, 2015

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Polish presidential election, 2015

Polish presidential election, 2015

10 May 2015 (first round)
24 May 2015 (second round)

Turnout 48.96% (first round)
55.34% (second round)
 
Nominee Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski
Party Independent
Popular vote 8,630,627 8,112,311
Percentage 51.55% 48.45%

President before election

Bronisław Komorowski
Independent

Elected President

Andrzej Duda

A presidential election in two rounds was held in Poland on 10 and 24 May 2015. In the first round of voting, opposition Law and Justice (PiS) candidate Andrzej Duda received the greatest number of votes with a share of 34.76%, followed by incumbent president Bronisław Komorowski (with 33.77%), who ran as an independent with the endorsement of the Civic Platform (PO),[1] which he had renounced his membership in after winning the 2010 elections. Independent candidate Paweł Kukiz came third with 20.80% of the votes. As no candidate had received more than 50% of the votes cast, a second round was held on 24 May between the two highest-placed candidates, Duda and Komorowski. This round was won by Duda with 51.5% of the votes, to Komorowski's 48.5%. This was the closest presidential election in Polish history.

The victory of Duda's Law and Justice party is the latest in a series of electoral victories for eurosceptic centre-right and right-wing parties in Europe. His party received strong support in the eastern half of the country closest to Ukraine and had campaigned on a platform of tax cuts, continued privatization, continued social welfare spending, anti-corruption, constitutional reform, increased military spending and closer ties to NATO, limited support of EU integration, and restrictions on abortion, euthanasia, legal recognition of homosexual couples and media portrayals of sex and violence.

Electoral system

The Polish president is elected directly by the people to serve for 5 years, and can be re-elected only once. Pursuant to the provisions of the Constitution, the president must be elected by an absolute majority of valid votes; if no candidate succeeds in passing this threshold, a second round of voting is held with the two candidates who received the largest and second largest number of votes respectively.

In order to be registered to contest the elections, candidates had to be a Polish citizen, at least 35 years old on the day of the first round of the election, and have collected at least 100,000 voters' signatures.

According to the article 28, the day of the election had to fall on a Sunday between 100 to 75 days before the end of the term of the incumbent. As the term of Bronisław Komorowski will officially end on 6 August 2015, the first round had to occur between 27 April and 22 May, so that the possible dates were theoretically either 3, 10, or 17 May, though in practice only the latter two were realistic possibilities as the first fell on Constitution Day, a national holiday.[2]

This was the first presidential election carried out following changes in 2011.[3]

Candidates

In total 23 candidates registered with the State Electoral Commission.[4] Only 11 submitted the required 100,000 signatures supporting their candidacy before the 26 March deadline.:[5]

Rejected candidates

The registered candidates who failed to submit 100,000 signatures supporting their run for office were:

Among those who publicly announced their candidacy, but failed to register, were:

Campaign

Television debates

One debate took place before the first round, on 5 May, chaired by Krzysztof Ziemiec and aired on TVP 1.[20] Ten candidates attended the debate, while President Komorowski declined to appear.[21]

Two debates took place before the second round, the first chaired by Dorota Gawryluk and by Krzysztof Ziemiec on 17 May,[22] and the second on 21 May by TVN, chaired by Monika Olejnik, Bogdan Rymanowski and Justyna Pochanke. In both of these, the candidates also had the opportunity to pose questions to the other.[23] Komorowski was generally regarded by the Polish press and political analysts to have won the first of the second-round debates.[24] The second debate was considered to be less decisive.[25][26][27]

Opinion polls

Nearly all opinion polls taken before the first round of the election predicted President Komorowski would receive the largest vote share in the first round, with some polls taken in late 2014 and early 2015 suggesting he was on track for an outright win that would avoid a runoff election.[28][29]

Polls were closer in the second round, with most predicting a narrow Duda victory.[30] At least one late poll showed Komorowski pulling ahead, but just slightly.[31]

First round

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided Others Lead
Komorowski
IN
Duda
PiS
Ogórek
SLD
Jarubas
PSL
Palikot
TR
Korwin-Mikke
KORWiN
Braun
IN
Grodzka
Greens
Kowalski
RN
Kukiz
IN
Wilk
KNP
Nowicka
UP
EXIT POLLS:
IPSOS
10 May 2015 - 32.2% 34.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 4.4% 1.1% - 0.8% 20.3% 0.6% - 0.3% 2.6%
Election day (10 May)
IBRiS 8 May 2015 7.5% 39% 31% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 1% 19% 0% - 0% 8%
TNS Poland 6-7 May 2015 13% 35% 27% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 0% 15% 0% - 0% 8%
Millward Brown 7 May 2015 3% 39% 27% 4% 2% 3% 5% 1% - 0% 13% 0% - 0% 12%
IBRiS 6 May 2015 5% 39.7% 29% 2.4% 3.2% 1.7% 4.2% 0.8% - 0.7% 14.3% 0% - 0.1% 10.7%
Pressmix 3 May 2015 5.1% 33.3% 33.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.9% 6.6% 0.8% - 0.6% 13.7% 0.5% - 0.1% Tie
Millward Brown 13 April 2015 7% 45% 28% 4% 2% 2% 6% - - - 6% - - - 17%
TNS Poland 7-8 April 2015 13% 46% 24% 3% 1% 2% 4% - - - 6% - - - 22%
Millward Brown 30 March 2015 9% 42% 26% 7% 2% 3% 6% - - 1% 4% - - - 16%
IBRiS 27-28 March 2015 11.1% 40.7% 26.6% 4.9% 5.1% 2.7% 4.8% 0.4% - 0.4% 3.3% 0% - - 14.1%
100,000 supporting signatures deadline (26 March)
TNS Poland 13–18 March 2015 21% 41% 24% 6% 2% 1% 2% - - - 2% - 1% - 17%
Millward Brown 16 March 2015 2% 46% 31% 4% 1% 4% 4% - 0% 1% 5% - 1% 1% 15%
PPW 9–15 March 2015 - 48% 30% 4% 2% 6% 4% - 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 18%
IBRiS 13 March 2015 12% 46% 26% 5% 4% 3% 3% - - - 1% - - - 20%
TNS Poland 10-11 March 2015 12% 45% 27% 5% 1% 1% 4% <1% 1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 1% 18%
CBOS 5–11 March 2015 18% 52% 19% 3% 1% 2% 1% - <0.5% <0.5% 2% - <0.5% 2% 33%
PPW 2–8 March 2015 - 48% 28% 3% 2% 7% 4% - 1% 1% 4% - 1% 1% 20%
Millward Brown 2 March 2015 2% 46% 27% 8% 3% 2% 4% - 1% 1% 4% - 0% 2% 19%
PPW 23-28 Feb 2015 - 50% 28% 4% 3% 5% 3% - 1% 1% 3% - 1% 1% 22%
Ipsos 25-26 Feb 2015 3.2% 49.7% 28% 5.7% 2% 1.4% 3.8% - - 0.7% 3.5% 0.3% - 0.5% 21.7%
PPW 16-22 Feb 2015 - 51% 25% 4% 3% 6% 2% - 1% 1% 5% - 1% 1% 26%
TNS Poland 13-18 Feb 2015 22% 47% 17% 6% 4% 1% 1% - 1% - 1% - - - 30%
Estymator 15-17 Feb 2015 - 51% 25% 8% 4% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% - - 26%
Millward Brown 16 Feb 2015 5% 47% 24% 7% 2% 6% 3% 1% 0% 4% - - - 23%
GfK Polonia 12-16 Feb 2015 14% 52% 20% 4% 2% 2% 2% - - 3% - - - 32%
IBRiS 12-13 Feb 2015 9% 49% 26% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 3% <1% - - 23%
CBOS 5-11 Feb 2015 8% 63% 15% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - - - - 4% 48%
TNS Poland 4-5 Feb 2015 11% 53% 19% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% - - - 4% 34%
IBRiS 3 Feb 2015 - 55% 25% 5% 1% 2% 4% - - - - - - 30%
Millward Brown 25 Jan 2015 4% 62% 18% 8% 1% 2% 3% - 1% - - - - 44%
TNS Poland 16-21 Jan 2015 24% 52% 12% 5% - 2% 3% - 0% - - - - 40%
Ariadna 16-20 Jan 2015 - 48% 17% 7% 2% 7% 7% - 2% - - - 10% 31%
GfK Polonia 15-18 Jan 2015 20% 55% 14% 4% - 2% 3% - - - - - - 41%
TNS Poland 12-13 Jan 2015 11% 56% 19% 6% 1% 2% 4% - - - - - 1% 37%
Millward Brown 12 Jan 2015 4% 65% 21% 6% - 1% 3% - - - - - - 44%
TNS Poland 10-11 Dec 2014 13% 56% 17% - - 2% 5% - - - - - 7% 39%
IBRiS 4 Dec 2014 5% 55.6% 23.1% - - 1.3% 4.8% 0.7% - - - - - 11.5% 32.5%
Notes

Second round

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Abstention Undecided
Komorowski
IN
Duda
PiS
Millward Brown 20 May 2015 - 47% 45% 8%
Estymator 18 May 2015 - 48% 52% -
Millward Brown 18 May 2015 - 47% 44% 9%
IBRiS 14 May 2015 - 43.2% 48% 6.9%
Millward Brown 14 May 2015 - 40% 44% 15%
Estymator 13-14 May 2015 - 46% 54% -
Election day (10 May)
Millward Brown 7 May 2015 - 54% 41% 5%
Millward Brown 13 April 2015 - 55% 40% 5%
Millward Brown 30 March 2015 - 52% 41% 7%
Millward Brown 16 March 2015 4% 53% 37% 6%
PPW 2–8 March 2015 - 62% 38% -
Millward Brown 16 Feb 2015 10% 59% 27% 4%
CBOS 5-11 Feb 2015 7% 65% 19% 9%

Results

Duda took a narrow first-place finish over Komorowski in the first round of the election on 10 May 2015, forcing the incumbent into a runoff. The result was described as a surprise, as the Komorowski camp and many political observers expected him to perform better or perhaps win outright.[28][30][32][33] Paweł Kukiz, who finished third in the first round of voting, declined to endorse either Duda or Komorowski, instead offering to moderate a debate between the two candidates.[34] Komorowski declined to participate, and the debate was never held.[35]

In the second round of the election on 24 May, Duda unseated Komorowski in the closest presidential election since Poland became a democracy.[36][37] He defeated the incumbent by a margin of approximately three percentage points, according to official results.[38]

Results of the first round by counties
Results of the second round by counties
Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Andrzej Duda Law and Justice 5,179,092 34.76 8,630,627 51.55
Bronisław Komorowski Independent (endorsed by Civic Platform) 5,031,060 33.77 8,112,311 48.45
Paweł Kukiz Independent 3,099,079 20.80
Janusz Korwin-Mikke KORWiN 486,084 3.26
Magdalena Ogórek Independent (endorsed by SLD) 353,883 2.38
Adam Jarubas Polish People's Party 238,761 1.60
Janusz Palikot Your Movement 211,242 1.42
Grzegorz Braun Independent 124,132 0.83
Marian Kowalski National Movement 77,630 0.52
Jacek Wilk Congress of the New Right 68,186 0.46
Paweł Tanajno Direct Democracy 29,785 0.20
Invalid/blank votes 124,952 250,231
Total 15,023,886 100 16,993,169 100
Registered voters/turnout 30,688,570 48.96 30,709,281 55.34
Source: PKW, PKW

Reactions

Komorowski said after the release of the exit poll that it was important to respect the result of the vote.[36] He conceded defeat that evening and wished Duda "a successful presidency".[39]

Duda hailed his victory as a vote for change.[39] His campaign manager said the election showed that the Law and Justice bloc could win parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall.[40]

Many world leaders, including United States President Barack Obama,[41] German Chancellor Angela Merkel,[42] and Russian President Vladimir Putin,[43] congratulated Duda on his victory.

References

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External links

  • Polish Election Committee (Polish)
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