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Global Trends 2015 : A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts

By Tenet, George J.

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Book Id: WPLBN0000699926
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 6.29 MB.
Reproduction Date: 2006

Title: Global Trends 2015 : A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts  
Author: Tenet, George J.
Language: English
Subject: Government publications, CIA research reports, National security.
Collections: CIA Documents Collection
Publication Date:
Publisher: Central Intelegence Agent


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Tenet, G. J. (n.d.). Global Trends 2015 : A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. Retrieved from

Excerpt: From the Director of Central Intelligence; I am pleased to introduce Global Trends 2015, which takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker. This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods. Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future. I want to encourage this lively exchange. From the beginning of this ambitious project in fall 1999, we intended to make GT-2015 an unclassified assessment to be shared with the public. Experts from academia, think-tanks and the corporate world have made major contributions, and their reactions, along with those of other specialists who will see our work for the first time, will strengthen our continuing analysis of the issues covered in GT-2015. Grappling with the future is necessarily a work in progress that, I believe, should constantly seek new insights while testing and revising old judgments. I hope that GT-2015 will contribute to a growing strategic dialogue in the US Government that will help our country meet the challenges and opportunities ahead. I look forward to your comments.

Table of Contents
Table of Contents: Note on Process, 1 ? Overview, 5 -- The Drivers and Trends, 8 -- Key Uncertainties: Technology Will Alter Outcomes, 13 -- Key Challenges to Governance: People Will Decide, 17 ? Discussion, 19 -- Population Trends, 19 -- Divergent Aging Patterns, 19 -- Movement of People 20 -- Health 24 -- Natural Resources and Environment 26 -- Food 26 -- Water 27 -- Energy 28 -- Environment 31 -- Science and Technology 32 -- Information Technology, 32 ? Biotechnology, 33 -- Other Technologies 33 -- The Global Economy, 34 -- Dynamism and Growth 34 -- Unequal Growth Prospects and Distribution, 35 -- Economic Crises and Resilience, 38 -- National and International Governance, 38 -- Nonstate Actors, 40 -- Criminal Organizations and Networkss 41 -- Changing Communal Identities and Networks 41 -- Overall Impacts on States 46 -- International Cooperation 47 -- Future Conflict, 49 -- Internal Conflicts, 49 -- Transnational Terrorism, 50 -- Interstate Conflicts, 50 -- Reacting to US Military Superiority, 56


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