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Civil Disorder in the Former Ussr : Can It Be Managed This Winter?

By Central Intelegence Agent

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Book Id: WPLBN0000701857
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 415.04 KB.
Reproduction Date: 2006

Title: Civil Disorder in the Former Ussr : Can It Be Managed This Winter?  
Author: Central Intelegence Agent
Language: English
Subject: Government publications, CIA research reports, National security.
Collections: CIA Documents Collection
Publication Date:
Publisher: Central Intelegence Agent


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Agent, C. I. (n.d.). Civil Disorder in the Former Ussr : Can It Be Managed This Winter?. Retrieved from

Excerpt: Key Judgments Civil Disorder in the Former USSR: Can It Be Managed This Winter? (v Severe economic conditions, the fragmentation of the armed forces, and ongoing interethnic conflict this winter will combine to produce the most significant civil disorder in the former USSR since the BoIsheviks consolidated power. (w Directly targeted and administered Western assistance would improve Russia's chances of maintaining stability through the winter, but the odds of preventing a social explosion that would overwhelm or topple the government depend most critically on Yel'tsin's ability to manage painful reforms effectively. (e-mE') Yel'tsin's performance thus far is mildly encouraging: he apparently will not restrict credit and spending so rapidly as to result immediately in massive unemployment and bankruptcies, But his mishandling of price liberalization-causing panic buying by announcing it in advance-demonstrates the potential for further mismanagement that could Iead to the collapse of his government and, with it, prospects for reform. (w Because of less severe food shortages, Ukraine's prospects of remaining stable through the winter are good as long as it continues to avoid significant friction with Russia. The impact of civil disorder in other republics will vary, but all would eventually be seriously affected by instability in Russia.


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