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Afghanistan : The War in Perspective

By Central Intelegence Agent

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Book Id: WPLBN0000704413
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 137.30 KB.
Reproduction Date: 2006

Title: Afghanistan : The War in Perspective  
Author: Central Intelegence Agent
Language: English
Subject: Government publications, CIA research reports, National security.
Collections: CIA Documents Collection
Publication Date:
Publisher: Central Intelegence Agent


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Agent, C. I. (n.d.). Afghanistan : The War in Perspective. Retrieved from

Excerpt: Key Judgments; The Kabul regime is weak, unpopular, and factionalized, but it will probably remain in power over the next 12 months. The war will remain at a near impasse. The regime will continue to resist Mujahedin pressure so long as the Soviet Union remains willing and able to continue its massive military supply program and the regime's internal problems remain manageable: The Mujahedin hold the military initiative to the extent that they move unhindered by the regime in most of the countryside and they choose when and where to fight. The resistance, however, will be unable to prevent the supply of Soviet materiel to regime forces. The resistance will remain a guerrilla force and will find it difficult to seize major regime garrisons. This conflict is best understood as an insurgency. Political/military elements, such as regime fragility, Mujahedin disunity, and local tribal factors will be at least as important to the final outcome as strictly military considerations. Despite extensive popular support, the highly factionalized resistance is unlikely to form a political entity capable of uniting the Mujahedin. The Afghan Interim Government and most major commanders will refuse to negotiate directly with Kabul, barring the departure of Najibullah and top regime officials, but we cannot rule out the possibility of indirect talks. Pakistan will continue to support the resistance, whether Benazir Bhutto or her political opposition is in power. (s NF) The Soviets will continue to search for a political settlement while providing massive support to Kabul over the next year. Soviet moves could include a dramatic new initiative, especially if Gorbachev saw it as a way to remove the Afghan issue from the US-Soviet agenda before the summit next year.


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