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Gorbachev's Economic Programs : The Challenges Ahead

By Central Intelegence Agent

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Book Id: WPLBN0000704873
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 1.15 MB.
Reproduction Date: 2006

Title: Gorbachev's Economic Programs : The Challenges Ahead  
Author: Central Intelegence Agent
Language: English
Subject: Government publications, CIA research reports, National security.
Collections: CIA Documents Collection
Publication Date:
Publisher: Central Intelegence Agent


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Agent, C. I. (n.d.). Gorbachev's Economic Programs : The Challenges Ahead. Retrieved from

Excerpt: recalcitrant bureaucracy. The comparatively high prices of privately supplied goods will spur inflation. An added problem for Moscow is that these reforms probably will be most successful, at least initially, in non- Russian areas such as the Baltic states and the Caucasus.+ We do not foresee a large, sustained increase in Soviet imports from the West. The Soviets may increase borrowing to perhaps $3-4 billion net per year over the next few years. Even a much larger surge in borrowing from the West, which we think is unlikely, would not aid the overall economy substantially or ameliorate the resource competition between the military and civilian sectors. A few industries may benefit, however.- We judge Gorbachev will divert additional resources from defenseincluding managers, equipment designers, investment funds, and plant capacity-to his civilian programs. While we recognize there is some redundant defense plant capacity, significant increases in the production of goods for the civilian sector would require a diversion of resources from the military. Diversion from defense to civilian objectives will escalate conflicts over resource allocation because it could delay upgrades to weapons plants, thereby postponing the introduction of new systems. Clearly there are strong economic pressures for major reductions in military spending. Striking the right balance will involve many leadership arguments and decisions over the entire period of this Estimate. In any case, the large-scale modernization of Soviet defense industries in the 1970s has already put in place most of the equipment needed to produce weapon systems scheduled for deployment through the early 1990~


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