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A Modelling Approach to Assessing the Timescale Uncertainties in Proxy Series with Chronological Errors : Volume 8, Issue 1 (03/01/2012)

By Divine, D. V.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003980598
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 31
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: A Modelling Approach to Assessing the Timescale Uncertainties in Proxy Series with Chronological Errors : Volume 8, Issue 1 (03/01/2012)  
Author: Divine, D. V.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Climate, Past
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Godtliebsen, F., Rue, H., & Divine, D. V. (2012). A Modelling Approach to Assessing the Timescale Uncertainties in Proxy Series with Chronological Errors : Volume 8, Issue 1 (03/01/2012). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Tromsø, 9037, Norway. The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors

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