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Millennial-length Forward Models and Pseudoproxies of Stalagmite Δ18O: an Example from NW Scotland : Volume 8, Issue 2 (12/03/2012)

By Baker, A.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003983468
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 39
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Millennial-length Forward Models and Pseudoproxies of Stalagmite Δ18O: an Example from NW Scotland : Volume 8, Issue 2 (12/03/2012)  
Author: Baker, A.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Climate, Past
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Phipps, S. J., Fischer, M., Fuller, L., Bradley, C., Baker, A., Spötl, C.,...Azcurra, C. (2012). Millennial-length Forward Models and Pseudoproxies of Stalagmite Δ18O: an Example from NW Scotland : Volume 8, Issue 2 (12/03/2012). Retrieved from

Description: Connected Waters Initiative Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Water Research Laboratory, 110 King St, Manly Vale, Australia. The stable oxygen isotope parameter Δ18O remains the most widely utilised speleothem proxy for past climate reconstructions. Uncertainty can be introduced into stalagmite Δ18O from a number of factors, one of which is the heterogeneity of groundwater flow in karstified aquifers. Here, we present a lumped parameter hydrological model, KarstFor, which is capable of generating monthly simulations of surface water – ground water – stalagmite Δ18O for more than thousand year time periods. Using a variety of climate input series, we use this model for the first time to compare observational with modelled (pseudoproxy) stalagmite Δ18O series for a site at Assynt, NW Scotland, where our knowledge of Δ18O systematics is relatively well understood. The use of forward modelling allows us to quantify the relative contributions of climate, peat and karst hydrology, and disequilibrium effects in stalagmite Δ18O, from which we can identify potential stalagmite Δ18O responses to climate variability. Comparison of the modelled and actual stalagmite Δ18O for two stalagmites from the site demonstrates that for the period of overlapping growth, the two series do not correlate with one another, but forward modelling demonstrates that this falls within the range explicable by differences in flow routing to the stalagmites. Pseudoproxy Δ18O stalagmite series highlight the potential significance of peat hydrology in controlling stalagmite Δ18O over the last 1000 years at this site.

Millennial-length forward models and pseudoproxies of stalagmite Δ18O: an example from NW Scotland

Baker, A. and Bradley, C.: Modern stalagmite δ18O: Instrumental calibration and forward modelling, Global Planet. Change, 71, 201–206, 2010.; Baker, A. and Brunsdon, C.: Non-linearities in drip water hydrology: an example from Stump Cross Caverns, Yorkshire, J. Hydrol., 277, 151–163, 2003.; Baker, A., Smart, P. L., Edwards, R. L., and Richards, D. A.: Annual banding in a cave stalagmite, Nature, 364, 518–520, 1993.; Baker, A., Proctor, C. J., and Barnes, W. L.: Stalagmite lamina doublets: a 1000 year proxy record of severe winters in northwest Scotland?, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1339–1345, 2002.; Baker, A., Fuller, L., Genty, D., Fairchild, I. J., Jex, C., and Smith, C. L.: Annually laminated stalagmites: a review, Int. J. Speleol., 37, 193–206, 2008.; Baker, A., Asrat, A., Fairchild, I. J., Leng, M. J., Thomas, L. E., Widmann, W., Jex, C., Dong, B., Calsteren, P.V. and Bryant, C.: Decadal scale rainfall variability in Ethiopia recorded in an annually laminated, Holocene-age, stalagmite, Holocene, 20, 827–836, 2010.; Baker, A., Wilson, R., Fairchild, I. J., Franke, J., Spötl, C., Mattey, D., Trouet, V., and Fuller, L.: High resolution δ18O and δ13C records from an annually laminated Scottish stalagmite and relationship with last millennium climate, Global Planet. Change, 79, 303–311, 2011.; Boelter, D. H.: Hydraulic conductivity of peats, Soil Sci., 100, 227–231, 1965.; Bradley, C., Baker, A., Jex, C., and Leng, M. J.: Hydrological uncertainties in the modelling of cave drip-water δ18O and the implications for stalagmite palaeoclimate reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2201-2214, 2010.; Charman, D. J., Caseldine, C., Baker, A., Gearey, B., Hatton, J., and Proctor, C. J.: Paleohydrological records from peat profiles and speleothems in Sutherland, northwest Scotland, Quaternary Res., 55, 223–234, 2001.; Christiansen, B., Schmith, T. and Thejll, P.: A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: stochasticity and robustness, J. Climate, 22, 951–976, 2009.; Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., and Sardeshmukh, P.D.: Feasibility of a 100 year reanalysis using only surface pressure data, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 175–190, 2006; Daley, T. J., Street-Perrott, F. A., Loader, N. J., Barber, K. E, Hughes, P. D. M., Fisher, E. H., and Marshall, J. D.: Terrestrial climate signal of the 8200 yr BP event in the Labrador Sea region, Geology, 37, 831–834, 2009.; Fairchild, I. J. and Baker, A.: Speleothem Science: from process to past environments, Wiley Blackwell, ISBN: 978-1-4051-9620-8, p. 448, 2012.; Dominguez-Villar, D., Fairchild, I. J., Baker, A., Wang, X., Edwards, R. L., and Cheng, H.: Oxygen isotope precipitation anomaly in the North Atlantic region during the 8.2 ka event, Geology, 37, 1095–1098, 2009.; Fairchild, I. J., Tuckwell, G. W., Baker, A., and Tooth, A. F.: Modelling of dripwater hydrology and hydrogeochemistry in a weakly karstified aquifer (Bath, UK): implications for climate change studies, J. Hydrol., 321, 213–231, 2006a.; Fairchild, I. J., Smith, C. L., Baker, A., Fuller, L., Spötl, C., Mattey, D., McDermott, F., and E. I. M. F.: Modification and preservation of environmental signals in speleothems, Earth Sci. Rev., 75, 105–153, 2006b.; Fuller, L.: High resolution multiproxy geochemical Holocene climate records from 1000-year old Scottish stalagmites, unpublished PhD, University of Birmingham, 2007.; Fuller, L., Baker, A., Fairchild, I. J., Sp�tl, C., Marca-Bell, A., Rowe, P., and Dennis, P. F.: Isotope hydrology of dripwaters in a Scottish cave and implications for stalagmite palaeoclimate research, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1065–1074, doi:10.5194/hess-12-1065-2008, 2008.; Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice-core based index f


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