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Estimating the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Contribution to Future Sea Level Rise Using the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Mar : Volume 7, Issue 2 (14/03/2013)

By Fettweis, X.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003987152
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 21
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Estimating the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Contribution to Future Sea Level Rise Using the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Mar : Volume 7, Issue 2 (14/03/2013)  
Author: Fettweis, X.
Volume: Vol. 7, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Cryosphere
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Tedesco, M., Franco, B., Van Angelen, J. H., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., M. Lenaert, J. T., & Van Den Broeke, M. R. (2013). Estimating the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Contribution to Future Sea Level Rise Using the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Mar : Volume 7, Issue 2 (14/03/2013). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Geography, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

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