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Technical Note: Probabilistically Constraining Proxy Age–depth Models Within a Bayesian Hierarchical Reconstruction Model : Volume 11, Issue 3 (24/03/2015)

By Werner, J. P.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003992776
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 13
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Technical Note: Probabilistically Constraining Proxy Age–depth Models Within a Bayesian Hierarchical Reconstruction Model : Volume 11, Issue 3 (24/03/2015)  
Author: Werner, J. P.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Climate, Past
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Tingley, M. P., & Werner, J. P. (2015). Technical Note: Probabilistically Constraining Proxy Age–depth Models Within a Bayesian Hierarchical Reconstruction Model : Volume 11, Issue 3 (24/03/2015). Retrieved from

Description: Department for Earth Science and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway. Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors.

Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

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