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Time-lagged Ensemble Simulations of the Dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull Plume Over Europe with Cosmo-art : Volume 14, Issue 15 (07/08/2014)

By Vogel, H.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003994035
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 9
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Time-lagged Ensemble Simulations of the Dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull Plume Over Europe with Cosmo-art : Volume 14, Issue 15 (07/08/2014)  
Author: Vogel, H.
Volume: Vol. 14, Issue 15
Language: English
Subject: Science, Atmospheric, Chemistry
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Schad, T., Vogel, B., Vogel, H., Hanisch, T., Schättler, U., Förstner, J., & Mühr, B. (2014). Time-lagged Ensemble Simulations of the Dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull Plume Over Europe with Cosmo-art : Volume 14, Issue 15 (07/08/2014). Retrieved from http://www.ebooklibrary.org/


Description
Description: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Herrmann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany. An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. As an operational forecast was launched every 6 hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. After this calibration an independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 μm particles and observations at Hohenpeißenberg gives a correlation coefficient of 0.79. However, this agreement could only be reached after additional modifications of the emissions. Based on the time lagged ensemble the conditional probability of violation of a certain threshold is calculated. Improving the ensemble technique used in our study such probabilities could become valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

Summary
Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART

Excerpt
Ansmann, A., Tesche, M., Groß, S., Freudenthaler, V., Seifert, P., Hibaychi, A., Schmidt, J., Wandinger, U., Mattis, I., Muller, D., and Wiegner, M.: The 16 April 2010 major volcanic ash plume over central Europe: EARLINET lidar and AERONET photometer observations at Leipzig and Munich, Germany, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 26709–26719, 2010.; Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: Description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011.; Bangert, M., Nenes, A., Vogel, B., Vogel, H., Barahona, D., Karydis, V. A., Kumar, P., Kottmeier, C., and Blahak, U.: Saharan dust event impacts on cloud formation and radiation over Western Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4045–4063, doi:10.5194/acp-12-4045-2012, 2012.; Boylan, J. W. and Russell, A. G.: PM and light extinction model performance metrics, goals, and criteria for three-dimensional air quality models, Atmos. Environ. 40, 4946–4959, 2006.; DelSole, T. and Tippett, M. K.: Predictability: Recent Insights from Information Theory, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG4002, doi:10.1029/2006RG000202, 2007.; DelSole, T.: A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression, J. Climate, 20, 2810–2826, 2007.; Emeis, S., Forkel, R., Junkermann, W., Schäfer, K., Flentje, H., Gilge, S., Fricke, W., Wiegner, M., Freudenthaler, V., Gross, S., Ries, L., Meinhardt, F., Birmili, W., Münkel, C., Obleitner, F., and Suppan, P.: Measurement and simulation of the 16/17 April 2010 Eyjafjallajókull volcanic ash layer dispersion in the northern Alpine region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2689–2701, doi:10.5194/acp-11-2689-2011, 2011.; Flentje H., Claude, H., Elste, T., Gilge, S., Köhler, U., Plass-Dülmer, C., Steinbrecht, W., Thomas, W., Werner, A., and Fricke, W.: The Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010 – detection of volcanic plume using in-situ measurements, ozone sondes and a new generation ceilometer network, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10085–10092, doi:10.5194/acp-10-10085-2010, 2010.; Folch, A., Costa, A., and Basart, S.: Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds, Atmos. Environ., 48, 165–183, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.072, 2012.; Gasteiger, J., Groß, S., Freudenthaler, V., and Wiegner, M.: Volcanic ash from Iceland over Munich: mass concentration retrieved from ground-based remote sensing measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2209–2223, doi:10.5194/acp-11-2209-2011, 2011.; Gebhardt, Ch., Theis, S., Krahe, P., and Renner, V.: Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection-resolving model, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 67–72, doi:10.1002/asl.177, 2008.; Hanisch, Th.: Organisation der numerischen Wettervorhersage, Promet, 28, 40–45, 2002.; Hoffman, R. N. and Kalnay, E.: Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting, Tellus A, 35A, 100–118, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.1983.tb00189.x, 1983.; Knote, C., Brunner, D., Vogel, H., Allan, J., Asmi, A., Äijälä, M., Carbone, S., van der Gon, H. D., Jimenez, J. L., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Mohr, C., Poulain, L., Prévôt, A. S. H., Swietlicki, E., and Vogel, B.: Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of trace gases and aerosols in COSMO-ART, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1077–1102,

 

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