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Impacts of Climate Change on Air Pollution Levels in the Northern Hemisphere with Special Focus on Europe and the Arctic : Volume 8, Issue 1 (31/01/2008)

By Hedegaard, G. B.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003998312
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 75
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Impacts of Climate Change on Air Pollution Levels in the Northern Hemisphere with Special Focus on Europe and the Arctic : Volume 8, Issue 1 (31/01/2008)  
Author: Hedegaard, G. B.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Atmospheric, Chemistry
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2008
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

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Hansen, K. M., Christensen, J. H., Brandt, J., Hedegaard, G. B., Stendel, M., Geels, C., & Frohn, L. M. (2008). Impacts of Climate Change on Air Pollution Levels in the Northern Hemisphere with Special Focus on Europe and the Arctic : Volume 8, Issue 1 (31/01/2008). Retrieved from http://www.ebooklibrary.org/


Description
Description: National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Roskilde, Denmark. The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s) are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe.

The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations) are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a free run climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively.

The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by the DEHM model. This leads to an increase in the O3 production and together with an increase in water vapor to an increase in the number of free OH radicals. Furthermore this increase in the number of OH radicals contributes to a significant change in the typical life time of many species, since OH are participating in a large number of chemical reactions. It is e.g. found that more SO42− will be present in the future over the already polluted areas and this increase can be explained by an enhanced conversion of SO2 to SO42− .


Summary
Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

Excerpt
AMAP: AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying Pollutants, Arctic Haze, and Acidification in the Arctic, Scientific report, AMAP, 2006.; Brandt, J.: Modelling Transport, Dispersion and Deposition of Passive Tracers from Accidental Releases, Ph. D. thesis, University of Copenhagen, National Environmental Research Institute and Risø National Laboratory, 1998.; Brandt, J., Bastrup-Birk, A., Christensen, J. H., Mikkelsen, T., Thykier-Nielsen, S., and Zlatev, Z.: Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling, using DREAM - validation against ETEX-1, Atmos. Environ., 32, 4167–4186, 1998.; Brandt, J., Christensen, J. H., Frohn, L. M., and Berkowicz, R.: Operational air pollution forecasts from regional scale to urban street scale, Part 1: System description, Physi. Chem. Earth B, 26, 781–786, 2001a.; Brandt, J., Christensen, J. H., Frohn, L. M., and Berkowicz, R.: Operational air pollution forecasts from regional scale to urban street scale, Part 2: Performance Evaluation, Phys. Chem. Earth B, 26, 825–830, 2001b.; Brandt, J., Christensen, J. H., Frohn, L. M., Berkowicz, R., Skjøth, C., Geels, C., Hansen, K., Frydendall, J., Hedegaard, G., Hertel, O., Jensen, S., Hvidberg, M., Ketzel, M., Olesen, H., Løfstrøm, P., and Zlatev, Z.: THOR – an operational and integrated model system for air pollution forecasting and management from global to local scale, in: Proceedings from the First ACCENT Symposium, 6, 113–118, Urbino, Italy, 2005.; Christensen, J. H.: Testing Advection Schemes in a Three-Dimensional Air Pollution Model, Mathematical and Computational Modelling, 18, 75–88, 1993.; Christensen, J. H.: Transport of Air Pollution in the Troposphere to the Arctic, Ph. D thesis, Department of Environment and Research, NERI, 1995.; Christensen, J. H.: The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model - A three-dimensional air pollution model used for the Arctic, Atmos. Environ., 31, 4169–4191, 1997.; Christensen, J. H.: Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change Risk and Effects PRUDENCE, Tech. Rep. EVK2-ct2001-00132, Danish meteorological institute, 2005.; Frohn, L. M.: A study of long-term high-resolution air pollution modelling, Ph.D. thesis, University of Copenhagen and National Environmental Research Institute, 2004.; Frohn, L. M., Christensen, J. H., and Brandt, J.: Development and testing of numerical methods for two-way nested air pollution modelling, Phys. Chem. Earth, 27, 1487–1494, 2002a.; Frohn, L. M., Christensen, J. H., and Brandt, J.: Development of a High-Resolution Nested Air Pollution Model, The Numerical Approach, Journal of Computational Physics, 179, 68–94, 2002b.; Frohn, L. M., Christensen, J. H., Brandt, J., Geels, C., and Hansen, K. M.: Validation of a 3-D hemispheric nested air pollution model, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 3, 3543–3588, 2003.; Geels, C., Brandt, J., Christensen, J. H., Frohn, L. M., Hansen, K. M., and Skjøth, C. A.: Long-term calculations with a comprehensive nested hemispheric air pollution transport model, in: Proceedings from the First ACCENT Symposium, 185–196, NATO ARW workshop, Springer, Borovetz, Bulgaria, 2004.; Graedel, T., Bates, T., Bouwman, A., Cunnold, D., Dignon, J., Fung, I., Jacob, D., Lamb, B., Logan, J., Marland, G., Middleton, P., Pacyna, J., Placet, M., and Veldt, C.: A compilation of inventories of emissions to the atmosphere, Global Biogeochem. Cycl., 7, 1–26, 1993.; Grell, G., Dudhia, J., and Stauffer, D.: A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, 1–122, 1995.; Guenther, A., Hewitt, C., Erickson, D., Fall, R., Geron, C., Graedel, T., Harley, P., Klinger, L., Lerdau, M.

 

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