World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Flash Flood Detection Through a Multi-stage Probabilistic Warning System for Heavy Precipitation Events : Volume 29, Issue 29 (01/03/2011)

By Alfieri, L.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0003999020
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 7
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Flash Flood Detection Through a Multi-stage Probabilistic Warning System for Heavy Precipitation Events : Volume 29, Issue 29 (01/03/2011)  
Author: Alfieri, L.
Volume: Vol. 29, Issue 29
Language: English
Subject: Science, Advances, Geosciences
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2011
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Velasco, D., Alfieri, L., & Thielen, J. (2011). Flash Flood Detection Through a Multi-stage Probabilistic Warning System for Heavy Precipitation Events : Volume 29, Issue 29 (01/03/2011). Retrieved from http://www.ebooklibrary.org/


Description
Description: European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. The deadly combination of short to no warning lead times and the vulnerability of urbanized areas makes flash flood events extremely dangerous for the modern society. This paper contributes to flash flood early warning by proposing a multi-stage warning system for heavy precipitation events based on threshold exceedances within a probabilistic framework. It makes use of meteorological products at different resolutions, namely, numerical weather predictions (NWP), radar-NWP blending, and radar nowcasting. The system is composed by two main modules. First, a European Precipitation Index based on a simulated Climatology (EPIC) and probabilistic weather forecasts is calculated to pinpoint catchments at risk of upcoming heavy precipitation. Then, a Probabilistic Flash Flood Guidance System (PFFGS) is activated at the regional scale and uses more accurate input data to reduce the estimation uncertainty.

The system is tested for a high flow event occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in November 2008 and results from the different meteorological input data are compared and discussed. The strength of coupling the two systems is shown in its ability to detect areas potentially at risk of severe meteorological conditions and then monitoring the evolution by providing more accurate information with higher spatial-temporal resolution as the event approaches.


Summary
Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events

Excerpt
Golding, B. W.: Long lead time flood warnings: Reality or fantasy? Meteorol. Appl., 16, 3–12, 2009.; Alfieri, L., Laio, F., and Claps, P.: A simulation experiment for optimal design hyetograph selection, Hydrol. Process., 22, 813–820, 2008.; %Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the %Cévennes region, Adv. Geosci., in press, 2011\blackbox\textbfplease note, updated reference. %HS_1202 - update during publication?? Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting case study in the Cévennes region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, doi:10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011, 2011.; Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Sánchez-Diezma, R., Sempere- Torres, D.: Hydrological validation of a radar-based nowcasting technique, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 532–549, 2005.; Atencia, A., Rigo, T., Sairouni, A., Mor�, J., Bech, J., Vilaclara, E., Cunillera, J., Llasat, M. C., and Garrote, L.: Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1443–1455, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1443-2010, 2010.; Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS - Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141–153, doi:10.5194/hess-13-141-2009, 2009.; Blöschl, G., Reszler, C., and Komma, J.: A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model, Environ. Modell. Softw., 23, 464–478, 2008.; Chow, V. T., Maidment, D., and Mays, L.: Applied Hydrology, Ed. McGraw-Hill, 1988.; Collier, C. G.: Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 3–23, 2007.; Corral, C., Velasco, D., Forcadell, D., Sempere-Torres, D., and Velasco, E.: Advances in radar-based flood warning systems. The EHIMI system and the experience in the Besos flash-flood pilot basin. Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice, edited by: Allsop W., Samuels P., Harrop J., and Huntington S., Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-48507-4, 2009.; Ferrer, F. J.: Recomendaciones para el cálculo hidrometeorológico de avenidas, CEDEX, Madrid, 1993.; Fundel, F., Walser, A., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 176–189, 2010.; Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaškovi$\grave\rm e$ová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A., Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., and Viglione, A.: A compilation of data on European flash floods, J. Hydrol., 367, 70–78, 2009.; Georgakakos, K. P.: Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance, J. Hydrol., 317, 81–103, 2006.; Guillot, P. and Duband, D.: La méthode du gradex pour le calcul de la probabilité des crues à partir des pluies, AISH Publ no 84, 560–569, 1967.; Javelle, P., Fouchier, C., Arnaud, P., and Lavabre, J.: Flash flood warning at ungauged locations using radar rainfall and antecedent soil moisture estimations, J. Hydrol., 394, 267–274, 2010.; Lalaurette, F.: Early detection of abnormal weather conditions using probabilistic extreme forecast index, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3037–3057, 2003.; Marsigli, C., Boccanera, F., Montani, A., and Paccagnella, T.: The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: Validation of the methodology and verification, Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 12, 527–536, 2005.; Martina, M. L. V., Todini, E., and Libralon, A.: A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 413–426, doi:10.5194/hess-10-413-2006, 2006.; Ministerio de Fomento: Máximas lluvias diarias en la España Peninsular, Dirección General

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • The Wind and Wave Atlas of the Mediterra... (by )
  • Globally Covering A-priori Regional Grav... (by )
  • Ethics of Primate Use : Volume 5, Issue ... (by )
  • Shallow Shear-wave Reflection Seismics i... (by )
  • Sunshine Duration Climate Maps of Belgiu... (by )
  • Uncertainties of Soil Parameterisation i... (by )
  • Comparing Model Sensitivities of Differe... (by )
  • Hierarchical Bayesian Space-time Interpo... (by )
  • Sea Surface Topography Reconstruction fr... (by )
  • El Niño – Related Precipitation Variabil... (by )
  • Evaluation of the Cptec/Agcm Wind Foreca... (by )
  • Mass Movements in the Rio Grande Valley ... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.