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Climate Noise Effect on Uncertainty of Hydrological Extremes: Numerical Experiments with Hydrological and Climate Models : Volume 369, Issue 369 (11/06/2015)

By Gelfan, A. N.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004021277
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 5
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Climate Noise Effect on Uncertainty of Hydrological Extremes: Numerical Experiments with Hydrological and Climate Models : Volume 369, Issue 369 (11/06/2015)  
Author: Gelfan, A. N.
Volume: Vol. 369, Issue 369
Language: English
Subject: Science, Proceedings, International
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Motovilov, Y. G., Semenov, V. A., & Gelfan, A. N. (2015). Climate Noise Effect on Uncertainty of Hydrological Extremes: Numerical Experiments with Hydrological and Climate Models : Volume 369, Issue 369 (11/06/2015). Retrieved from

Description: Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia. An approach has been proposed to analyze the simulated hydrological extreme uncertainty related to the internal variability of the atmosphere (climate noise), which is inherent to the climate system and considered as the lowest level of uncertainty achievable in climate impact studies. To assess the climate noise effect, numerical experiments were made with climate model ECHAM5 and hydrological model ECOMAG. The case study was carried out to Northern Dvina River basin (catchment area is 360 000 km2), whose hydrological regime is characterised by extreme freshets during spring-summer snowmelt period. The climate noise was represented by ensemble ECHAM5 simulations (45 ensemble members) with identical historical boundary forcing and varying initial conditions. An ensemble of the ECHAM5-outputs for the period of 1979–2012 was used (after bias correction post-processing) as the hydrological model inputs, and the corresponding ensemble of 45 multi-year hydrographs was simulated. From this ensemble, we derived flood statistic uncertainty caused by the internal variability of the atmosphere.

Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models

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