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Implication of Calibration Period on Modelling Climate Change Impact on Future Runoff : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015)

By Chiew, F. H. S.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004021437
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 4
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Implication of Calibration Period on Modelling Climate Change Impact on Future Runoff : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015)  
Author: Chiew, F. H. S.
Volume: Vol. 371, Issue 371
Language: English
Subject: Science, Proceedings, International
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Vaze, J., Zheng, H., & S. Chie, F. H. (2015). Implication of Calibration Period on Modelling Climate Change Impact on Future Runoff : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015). Retrieved from

Description: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, G.P.O. Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff. The results show that modelled runoff and hydrologic responses can be influenced by the choice of historical data period used to calibrate and develop the hydrological model. Modelling approaches that do not take this into account may therefore underestimate the range and uncertainty in future runoff projections. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the choice of hydrological models and consideration of calibration dataset for modelling climate change impact on runoff is likely to be small compared to the uncertainty in the future rainfall projections.

Implication of calibration period on modelling climate change impact on future runoff

Chiew, F. H. S.: Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia, Hydrol. Sci. J., 51, 613–625, doi:10.1623/hysj.51.4.613, 2006.; Chiew, F. H. S., Peel, M. C., and Western, A. W.: Application and testing of the simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD, in: Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology and Applications, edited by: Singh, V. P. and Frevert, D. K., Water Resources Publication, Littleton, Colorado, 335–367, 2002.; Chiew, F. H. S., Teng, J., Vaze, J., Post, D. A., Perraud, J.-M., Kirono, D. G. C., and Viney, N. R.: Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia: method, results and implications of modelling method, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10414, doi:10.1029/2008WR007338, 2009.; Chiew, F. H. S., Potter, N. J., Vaze, J., Petheram, C., Zhang, L., and Post, D. A.: Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications and future modelling predictions, Stochast. Environm. Res. Risk Assess., 28, 3–15, doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5, 2014.; Coron, L., Andreassian, V., Perrin, C., Lerat, J., Vaze, J., Bourqui, M., and Hendrickx, F.: Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: an experiment on 216 Australian catchments, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05552, doi:10.1029/2011WR011721, 2012.; Jeffrey, S. J., Carter, J. O., Moodie, K. B., and Beswick, A. R.: Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data, Environ. Modell. Softw., 16, 309–330, 2001.; Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1, A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.; Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andreassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulations, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289, 2003.; Post, D. A., Timbal, B., Chiew, F. H. S., Hendon, H. H., Nguyen, H., and Moran, R.: Decrease in southeastern Australian water availability linked to ongoing Hadley cell expansion, Earth's Future, 2, 231–238, doi:10.1002/2013EF000194, 2014.; Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.; Teng, J., Vaze, J., Chiew, F. H. S., Wang, B., and Perraud, J.-M.: Estimating the relative uncertainties sourced from GCMs and hydrological models in modelling climate change impact on runoff, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 122–139, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-058.1, 2012.; Vaze, J., Post, D. A., Chiew, F. H. S., Perraud, J.-M., Viney, N., and Teng, J.: Climate non-stationarity – validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies, J. Hydrol., 394, 447–457, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.018, 2010.


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