World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Semi-automated Calibration Method for Modelling of Mountain Permafrost Evolution in Switzerland : Volume 9, Issue 5 (10/09/2015)

By Marmy, A.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004023600
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 57
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Semi-automated Calibration Method for Modelling of Mountain Permafrost Evolution in Switzerland : Volume 9, Issue 5 (10/09/2015)  
Author: Marmy, A.
Volume: Vol. 9, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Cryosphere, Discussions
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Lambiel, C., Marmy, A., Hoelzle, M., Salzmann, N., Noetzli, J., Kotlarski, S.,...Staub, B. (2015). Semi-automated Calibration Method for Modelling of Mountain Permafrost Evolution in Switzerland : Volume 9, Issue 5 (10/09/2015). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland. Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which facilitate the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, a large number of local point data are necessary to obtain a broad overview of the thermal evolution of mountain permafrost over a larger area, such as the Swiss Alps, and the site-specific model calibration of each point would be time-consuming. To face this issue, this paper presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps prior to long-term permafrost evolution simulations. We show that this automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for RCM-based long-term simulations under the A1B climate scenario specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depths until the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites. The degradation is more rapid at bedrock sites whereas ice-rich sites with a blocky surface cover showed a reduced sensitivity to climate change. The snow cover duration is expected to be reduced drastically (between −20 to −37 %) impacting the ground thermal regime. However, the uncertainty range of permafrost projections is large, resulting mainly from the broad range of input climate data from the different GCM-RCM chains of the ENSEMBLES data set.

Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland

Anisimov, O. A.: Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 045016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045016, 2007.; Anthony, K. M. W., Anthony, P., Grosse, G., and Chanton, J.: Geologic methane seeps along boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers, Nat. Geosci., 5, 419–426, 2012.; Arenson, L. U., Hoelzle, M., and Springman, S.: Borehole deformation measurements and internal structure of some rock glaciers in Switzerland, Permafrost Periglac., 13, 117–135, 2002.; Arenson, L. U., Hauck, C., Hilbich, C., Seward, L., Yamamoto, Y., and Springman, S. M.: Sub-surface heterogeneities in the Murtèl-Corvatsch rock glacier, Switzerland, in: Proceedings of the Sixth Canadian Permafrost Conference, Calgary, Alta, 12–16, 2010.; Barboux, C., Delaloye, R., Lambiel, C., Strozzi, T., Collet, C., and Raetzo, H.: Surveying the activity of permafrost landforms in the Valais Alps with InSAR, in: Mattertal – ein Tal in Bewegung, edited by: Graf, C., Publikation zur Jahrestagung der Schweizerischen Geomorphologischen Gesellschaft, 29, WSL, St Niklaus, Switzerland, 7–19, 2013.; Bavay, M., Lehning, M., Jonas, T., and Löwe, H.: Simulations of future snow cover and discharge in Alpine headwater catchments, Hydrol. Process., 23, 95–108, 2009.; Begert, M.: Homogenisierung von Klimamessreihen der Schweiz und Bestimmung der Normwerte 1961–1990: Schlussbericht des Projekts NORM90, MeteoSchweiz, Zürich, Switzerland, 2003.; Beven, K.: Towards a coherent philosophy for modelling the environment, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 458, 2465–2484, 2002.; Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298, 1992.; Engelhardt, M., Hauck, C., and Salzmann, N.: Influence of atmospheric forcing parameters on modelled mountain permafrost evolution, Meteorol. Z., 19, 491–500, 2010.; Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11–29, 2001.; Boeckli, L., Brenning, A., Gruber, S., and Noetzli, J.: A statistical approach to modelling permafrost distribution in the European Alps or similar mountain ranges, The Cryosphere, 6, 125–140, doi:10.5194/tc-6-125-2012, 2012.; Bosshard, T., Kotlarski, S., Zappa, M., and Schär, C.: Hydrological climate-impact projections for the Rhine river: GCM–RCM uncertainty and separate temperature and precipitation effects, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 697–713, 2014.; Bommer, C., Phillips, M., and Arenson, L. U.: Practical recommendations for planning, constructing and maintaining infrastructure in mountain permafrost, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 97–104, 2010.; Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P., and Friedlingstein, P.: An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015.; Cui, T., Fox, C., and O'Sullivan, M. J.: Bayesian calibration of a large-scale geothermal reservoir model by a new adaptive delayed acceptance Metropolis Hastings algorithm, Water Resour. Res., 47, W10521, doi:10.1029/2010WR010352, 2011.; Delaloye, R.: Contribution à l'étude du pergélisol de montagne en zone marginale, PhD thesis, Université de Fribourg, Fribourg, 2004.; Delaloye, R. and Lambiel, C.: Evidence of winter ascending air circulation throughout talus slopes and rock glaciers situated in the lower belt of alpine discontinuous permafrost (Swiss Alps), Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 59, 194–203, 2005.; Ekici, A., Beer, C., Hagemann, S., Boike, J., Langer, M., and Hauck, C.: Simul


Click To View

Additional Books

  • The Global Land Cryosphere Radiative Eff... (by )
  • Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing of Larse... (by )
  • Fram Strait Spring Ice Export and Septem... (by )
  • Satellite Monitoring of Glaciers in the ... (by )
  • Modelling the Transfer of Supraglacial M... (by )
  • Present Dynamics and Future Prognosis of... (by )
  • Dynamic Response of Antarctic Ice Shelve... (by )
  • Model Calibration for Ice Sheets and Gla... (by )
  • Stable Isotope and Gas Properties of Two... (by )
  • In-situ Multispectral and Bathymetric Me... (by )
  • High-resolution Interactive Modelling of... (by )
  • Modelling Borehole Temperatures in South... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.